Assessing regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble-driven reference evapotranspiration over Spain
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Ingeniería HidráulicaSponsors
The authors acknowledge the financial support of Fundación Séneca grant number 19527/PI/14, Agency of Science and Technology of Murcia Region in the framework of PCTIRM 2011–2014, Comunidad Autónoma de la Región de Murcia (Spain).Publication date
2018Publisher
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Giménez, P.O.; García-Galiano, S.G. Assessing Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Ensemble-Driven Reference Evapotranspiration over Spain. Water 2018, 10, 1181. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091181Keywords
Regional climate modelsPDF ensembles
Reference evapotranspiration
Climate change
Spain
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Abstract
The present work applies a novel methodology of combining multiple Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (or ensemble) that are based on the seasonal and annual variability of temperatures over Spain, which allows for the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in the projections of temperature based-potential evapotranspiration. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important variables in water budgets. Therefore, the uncertainties in the identification of reliable trends of reference evapotranspiration should be taken into account for water planning and hydrological modeling under climate change scenarios. From the results over Spain, the RCMs ensemble reproduces well the yearly and seasonal temperature observed dataset for the time reference period 1961–1990. An increase in the ensemble-driven ETo for time period 2021–2050 over Spain is expected, which is motivated by an increase in maximum and minimum temperature, with the consequent negative impacts on water availability.
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