Geostatistical analysis of the spatial correlation between territorial anthropization and flooding vulnerability: Application to the DANA Phenomenon in a Mediterranean watershed

Abstract

Climate change is making intense DANA (depresión aislada en niveles altos) type rains a more frequent phenomenon in Mediterranean basins. This trend, combined with the transformation of the territory derived from diffuse anthropization processes, has created an explosive cocktail for many coastal towns due to flooding events. To evaluate this problem and the impact of its main guiding parameters, a geostatistical analysis of the territory based on GIS indicators and an NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) analysis is developed. The assessment of the validity of a proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Campo de Cartagena watershed located around the Mar Menor, a Mediterranean coastal lagoon in Southeastern Spain. This area has suffered three catastrophic floods derived from the DANA phenomenon between 2016 and 2019. The results show that apart from the effects derived from climate change, the real issue that amplifies the damage caused by floods is the diffuse anthropization process in the area, which has caused the loss of the natural hydrographic network that traditionally existed in the basin.