Revisiting core traffic growth in the presence of expanding CDNs

Abstract

Traffic growth forecasts announce a dramatic future for core networks, struggling to keep the pace of traffic augmentation. Internet traffic growth primarily stems from the proliferation of cloud services and the massive amounts of data distributed by the content delivery networks (CDNs) hosting these services. In this paper, we investigate the evolution of core traffic in the presence of growing CDNs. Expanding the capacities of existing data centers (DCs) directly translates the forecasted compound-annual-growth-rate (CAGR) of user traffic to the CAGR of carried core link traffic. On the other hand, expanding CDNs by building new geographically dispersed DCs can significantly reduce the predicted core traffic growth rates by placing content closer to the users. However, reducing DC-to-user traffic by building new DCs comes at a trade-off with increasing inter-DC content synchronization traffic. Thus, the resulting overall core traffic growth will depend on the types of services supported and their associated synchronization requirements. In this paper, we present a long-term evolution study to assess the implications of different CDN expansion strategies on core network traffic growth considering a mix of services in proportions and growth rates corresponding to well-known traffic forecasts. Our simulations indicate that CDNs may have significant incentive to build more DCs, depending on the service types they offer, and that current alarming traffic predictions may be somewhat overestimated in core networks in the presence of expanding CDNs. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.