Desarrollo portuario sostenible : modelización del riesgo en inversiones portuarias

Abstract

This research, that is part of a thesis, has been drafted within the investi-gation of TEI group “Transport Engineering and Infrastructure” (“Ingeniería e Infraestructura de los Transportes”) of the Polytechnic University of Cartagena (Spain). So one of the purposes of the thesis is to consolidate lines of research relating to port infrastructures risk assessment and mitigation, and economic and financial analysis. The primary objective of this research is to better understand and to im-prove risk identification and assessment through a better understanding of the variables involved, those that are found more relevant will become the overall objective of the thesis that will develop and adjust statistical distributions to re-produce the behavior of those selected variables, in order to produce a reliable analysis of face model to select investment port projects. Achieving the previously described primary objective, implies to achieve the following specific objectives: 1. Selection of the most relevant variables in the economic and financial analysis of port investment, through review of the literature. 2. Obtaining the statistical distributions of the selected variables, firstly through literature review, to tackle the problems of the implementation of the economic and financial assessments that include an analysis of risk, through the development of a base case, and try to offer some criteria in the resolution of these problems 3. Develop of a model for economic and financial analysis, including a risk analysis to take into account the statistical distributions of the previously selected variables. 4. Application of the model developed to a real-world example to validate the proposed model. 5. Assess the relevance of each one of the selected variables to the final result of the analysis, by performing a regression analysis. This document outlines the findings of the tasks performed and highlights the issues of focus for the TEI group of research. These findings also suggest future research by TEI group to address port industry and port authorities risk evaluation issues, methods and procedures to improve the performance of in-ternational port projects.