Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

dc.contributor.authorLópez Pérez, Víctor 
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-18T06:12:10Z
dc.date.available2019-09-18T06:12:10Z
dc.date.issued2019-09-06
dc.description.abstractThe professional forecasters’ inability to anticipate macroeconomic recessions is well documented. The literature has found that aggregate or consensus forecasts are too optimistic before downturns and too pessimistic before recoveries. This paper explores whether this result also holds with individual data. Using a Spanish survey of professional forecasters conducted by Funcas, I find that forecasters are indeed too optimistic before recessions for two reasons. First, strong herding behaviour around the consensus forecast prevents those forecasters perceiving the early signs of a recession from adjusting their expectations as much as needed to predict it. And second, some forecasters put too much weight on the most recent developments when producing their forecasts and fail to fully account for the reversion to the mean embedded in the data-generating process. Both factors lead to negative forecast errors when a recession occurs. Consequently, professional forecasters could improve their forecasting performance by placing less weight on indicators from the recent past and by avoiding inefficient herding.es_ES
dc.formatapplication/pdfes_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/*
dc.titleWhy can’t professional macroeconomic forecasters predict recessions?es_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.subject.otherEconomía Aplicadaes_ES
dc.subjectprofessional forecasterses_ES
dc.subjectFuncases_ES
dc.subjectforecast errorses_ES
dc.subjectforecast revisionses_ES
dc.subjectexpected GDP growthes_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10317/7889
dc.peerreviewNoes_ES
dc.contributor.investgroupEconomía, Territorio y Medio Ambientees_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/draftes_ES
dc.subject.unesco5302.03 Proyección Económicaes_ES
dc.contributor.convenianteUniversidad Politécnica de Cartagenaes_ES
dc.subject.jelD84es_ES
dc.subject.jelE37es_ES


Ficheros en el ítem

untranslated

Este ítem aparece en la(s) siguiente(s) colección(ones)

Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
Excepto si se señala otra cosa, la licencia del ítem se describe como Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España