%0 Journal Article 
%A López Pérez, Víctor
%T Do Professional Forecasters Behave as if They Believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Euro Area?
%D 2015
%U http://hdl.handle.net/10317/4315
%X This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank’s Survey of
Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly
forward-looking) New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation
results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment
forecasts after the start of the financial crisis but another cost measure (energy
inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with the claim by the
International Monetary Fund that the Phillips Curve has recently become flatter in the
euro area. However, the reasons suggested by the Fund for this finding, namely a better
anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not
seem to find support in the survey data. Instead, downward wage rigidities may be
playing a prominent role.
%K Economía Aplicada
%K New Keynesian Phillips curve
%K Inflation
%K Unemployment
%K Panel data
%K Survey of Professional Forecasters
%K Downward wage rigidities
%~ GOEDOC, SUB GOETTINGEN